According to the economic reporter of rahnam news agency, the value of today’s small market transactions on November 16, 1402 was 5848 billion tomans. This is despite the fact that the value of transactions in the last 2 months was below 5 thousand billion tomans.
It should be noted that the value of capital market micro-transactions in the past month was always in the range of 4 thousand billion tomans, which today reached close to 6 thousand billion tomans with a jump of 50%.
Has the stock market rally started?
It should be noted that one of the signs that experts always mention as a sign of the capital market’s trend is the value of transactions. Undoubtedly, one of the factors that made the trend of the capital market downward in the last two months was the continuous withdrawal of liquidity from the market and the decrease in the value of transactions. Of course, it should be noted that the outflow of liquidity itself is caused by factors such as bond interest rates, macroeconomic instabilities, etc.
Based on this, the limited volatility of the capital market in recent weeks (in addition to the uncertainties in the currency market), was due to a noticeable drop in the value of transactions, which indicates the exit of small capital from the capital market. Also, it seems that another reason for the low prosperity of the capital market transactions in the past weeks is affected by the drop in the exchange rate in the free market. Of course, it is necessary to mention that the exchange rate of stock exchange companies is naturally based on the rate of the currency and gold exchange system, but a decrease in the exchange rate in the open market will cause a recession in the capital market due to the direct impact it has on inflationary expectations.
Therefore, if, like today, the growth of the transaction value continues, we can expect a new upward rally in the capital market, otherwise, the market growth can be just fluctuating as in the past and the capital market will not trend for now.
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