Analysts have been investigating since Wednesday who may be behind the attack on the Russian president’s residence. While the Russians escalate their rhetoric about Ukraine as the culprit, the attacked state insists that it did not send the drone and shifts the blame to the Kremlin’s innermost leadership. And experts on Russia and Ukraine, in turn, often talk about the fact that unofficial forces may have been involved without informing their leadership; either in Moscow or Kyiv.
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“The more I think about it, the more it seems to me that this is just some kind of fight between the security forces,” says Dmitry Oreshkin. | Video: Associated Press
The Kremlin on Wednesday accused Ukraine of attempting a drone attack on the presidential palace overnight and released footage from outdoor cameras purported to capture the strike. But Kiev immediately denied that it was responsible for the incident. The authenticity of the video has not yet been verified and there is speculation as to who actually caused the attack.
Political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin, who now works at a university in Latvia, does not think that this was a deliberate action on the part of the Kremlin’s innermost leadership. “It does not seem at all that this was the type of action comparable to the shelling of the border post in Mainila, which served as a pretext for the start of the Soviet-Finnish war,” he said in an interview with the Associated Press. “The more I think about it, the more it seems to me that this is just some kind of fight between the security forces,” he added.
In his opinion, in the current situation, similar events can no longer influence public opinion either in Russia or in the West. “In the midst of fatigue and irritation with Ukraine, the Kremlin and the US, people (in Russia) do not trust anyone. This is the phase that is currently underway. And in the midst of this phase, public opinion in Russia cannot be seriously frightened, united, mobilized or inspired by such events,” Oreshkin noted and added that, according to him, the Kremlin will at least try.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) drew attention to a similar scenario in its latest report. According to him, it is highly unlikely that two Ukrainian drones would have managed to penetrate Moscow’s air defenses in this way, not long after the Russian authorities in the metropolis strengthened them.
“Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that two drones could penetrate several layers of air defenses and then explode or be shot down directly over the heart of the Kremlin in such a way that everything would be impressively captured on camera,” the analysis reads. In connection with this, the Associated Press agency notes that it is not even clear why the announcement of the incident came from the Kremlin only about 12 hours after the alleged attack.
Samuel Bendett of the influential think tank New Center for American Security points out that the incident sends a dangerous message to the Russians. “It turned out that basically no part of European Russia is safe from attack. And the attack on the Kremlin, of course, has great symbolism, given that on May 9, Russia is supposed to hold a massive Victory Day parade there,” says Bendett. He too leans towards the variant that the attack was planned by unofficial agents. Unlike Oreshkin, however, he is talking about the Ukrainian side.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi denied on Wednesday that Ukraine had sent drones to the Moscow Kremlin. When asked why Russia blames it for the night attack, he then replied that the explanation is very simple. “Russia has no victories. Putin can no longer motivate his society and cannot simply send soldiers to die. Now he needs to somehow motivate his people to continue,” thinks the president of the country, which has been facing armed Russian aggression for more than a year.
Video: Russian state television’s reaction to the drone attack on the Moscow Kremlin
“Moscow considers the attack on the presidential residence to be a planned terrorist act,” Russian broadcasting said. | Video: Associated Press
