China is losing one of its firsts: according to UN data, it is no longer the most populous country in the world. This is what India has become, is becoming or will soon become – the exact moment cannot be determined with certainty. Beijing is not happy about the growing potential of the neighboring power and emphasizes that it is not just about quantity. See how the two most populous states are doing in comparison.
According to figures released by the United Nations last Wednesday, India is certain to surpass China in population by the middle of this year and have almost three million more people. Since India has not conducted a census since 2011, it is not easy to determine the exact numbers. However, it is estimated that over 1.4 billion people live in the country. That’s twice as much as the entire population of Europe.
Some experts on population growth even estimate that India overtook China as early as mid-April. China would thus lose the primacy it has held since the 1950s, i.e. from the time when the UN began to compare the population of individual countries in the world.
The turning point came last year, when China’s population declined for the first time since the Great Famine of the late 1950s and early 1960s. Experts expect this very moment to start a longer period of decline that will have profound effects on the Chinese economy and the rest of the world.
China’s strict one-child policy, which was in place from 1980 to 2015, has been blamed for the decline in the number of new births. Families who violated it were fined and in some cases even lost their jobs.
At the same time, the birth rate in the country began to decline already in the 1970s, when many Chinese moved to cities and people’s living standards rose after the Great Chinese Famine. For many parents in such a situation, it was neither necessary nor advantageous for them to have as many children as before.
A very similar trend can be seen in India as well, but it happened more naturally and slowly without strong state interventions. Population growth is actually slowing down there too, just not as pronounced as in its neighbor. But according to estimates, a similar situation will occur in India in 2064 and the population will begin to decrease.
Several factors influence the number of newly born children. Globally, for example, the more educated women are and the better their economic situation, the later they start having children. Those who live in cities also have fewer offspring than rural women.
The impact also has a reduction in infant mortality. In India, it has fallen rapidly by 70 percent in the last thirty years, but it still remains high by regional and international standards. India’s infant mortality rate is higher than that of neighboring Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, and much higher than that of China.
The long-term decline in the birth rate is subsequently reflected in an aging society. Currently, the average age in China is 39 years, while in India it is only 28 years. People under the age of 25 make up more than 40 percent of India’s population. In fact, there are so many Indians in this group that roughly one in five people in the world under the age of 25 live in India.
India now has more babies born each year than any other country, while China has joined many European countries where more people die each year than are born. This is a significant problem. A young population means great economic potential, while an aging population means stagnation and the question for the future, who will take care of the elderly?
Beijing does not like Western media covering the topic. “We have been slandered all along while China has developed and achieved sustainable and stable economic development with a huge population,” China’s state television CCTV responded to the reports.
The Asian power still ranks among the world’s largest economies. But China had one of the worst economic growths in almost half a century last year, which also underlines the problems with the population. The question remains whether it will be able to maintain its economic dominance in the future.
India, on the other hand, could now tap into the huge potential of its young population. However, it faces a number of challenges, such as the low participation of women in work or the low level of education in some regions. Nevertheless, politicians are very well aware of the situation and are working on changes.
In addition to the economic sphere, the two countries compete literally for the border area. While Delhi defines its country’s borders according to the colonists’ division of the early 20th century, Beijing claims part of it. After a short and bloody war in 1962, the Line of Actual Control, approximately 3,440 kilometers long, was established in the border area to determine who owns the area. But the divide is often formed by rivers, lakes or glaciers and therefore naturally shifts.
Skirmishes and sometimes shootouts occur on this line between the soldiers of the two countries. Although China spends significantly more money on arming the army than India, which still ranks third behind it in the world ranking, Delhi invests more when comparing the gross domestic product.
