The father of Iranian meteorology: the first autumn wave of rains will start next week/forecast of good rains in Azar 1402 – rahnam

According to the economic correspondent of rahnam news agency, the latest wrong prediction of the country’s meteorological organization was related to the prediction of the start of abnormal rains from the beginning of November this year.

In an announcement about the rains, the Meteorological Organization announced: “According to the data of the National Climate and Drought Crisis Management Center of the Meteorological Organization, abnormal rains will start from the beginning of this month (November), while the country’s rainfall has been 20% more than the 30-year average. In the past, after the end of the fourth week of autumn, not even a single drop of rain had fallen in 12 provinces of the country, and the average rainfall of about 10 provinces was less than one millimeter.

This is despite the fact that from the beginning of the crop year to the end of the fourth week of autumn, there was zero rainfall in only one southern province and autumn rains have started in 30 provinces.

The data of the National Climate and Drought Crisis Management Center of the Iran Meteorological Organization show that Gilan is the rainiest province in the country so far with an average of 108 mm of rain.

After Gilan, the highest rainfall was for Mazandaran provinces with 96 mm, Golestan with 59 mm and Ardabil with 39 mm respectively.

Although the rains of the crop year started earlier than expected and their amount has been more than normal so far, but the accumulated low rainfall and consecutive droughts of the past cannot be compensated by a year of normal rainfall, a large part of the country is still affected by different degrees of drought. It increases the necessity of water resource management.”

According to rahnam, one of the problems that experts in the field of meteorology always bring to the functioning of the meteorological organization is the wrong weather and precipitation forecasts by this specialized organization. That the experts of the mentioned organization do not update the information related to meteorological maps and most importantly, there is no localized model in this field in the country.

According to the data of the National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management of the Meteorological Organization, from the beginning of the current water year until Sunday, November 14, the rainfall was negative in 23 provinces of the country, which shows the contrary to the prediction of abnormal rainfall.

In this situation, the father of Iranian meteorology, citing maps and meteorological models, says that we will have almost good rains in December and January this year.

Hossein Ardakani, in an interview with the economic reporter of rahnam News Agency, said: “On Friday, a rain system entered southwest Iran and affected Khuzestan to a part of Ilam and possibly Fars, and we will witness good rainfall in these provinces.”

He continued: This shallow and weak system causes relatively good rainfall in the mountainous areas and has strong and good showers. After that, it moves towards Hormozgan and Bandar Abbas in the direction of east and leaves the country within 48 and 72 hours.

He stated that this system does not enter Tehran and added: But at the same time, another system entered from the north and covered West and East Azerbaijan and entered the Caspian Sea. This system has significant rainfall. The mentioned system does not affect the center of Iran.

He said: But next week, a relatively good rain wave will enter the country, which can be said to be the first autumn wave for the month of Azar, which has relatively good rainfall and will affect all of Iran to a certain extent. For example, in Tehran, we will have rain during next Monday and Tuesday, which will remove the air from this severe pollution. We will also have a relatively strong wind and the weather will cool down a few degrees.

A senior meteorologist said: “Unfortunately, this system will pass over the Iranian region very soon, covering the whole region and temporarily raining for 48 and 72 hours, and then it will leave the Iranian region.”

About the forecast of rains in December, Ardakani said: During December until the end of autumn, we have several systems like this, fortunately, they come and pass over the region. We will not have a bad situation like October and November, and I hope that the third month of autumn will be normal in terms of rainfall, although it cannot compensate for the decrease in rainfall in the autumn season.

Pointing out that the Meteorological Organization has announced that we have normal and abnormal rains in the fall season, he said: Although I see a good December, it cannot reach us even in all normal or abnormal areas in three months. Maybe the rain will bring two to three provinces to normal, but we cannot bring it to normal.

He added: Meteorological maps show that rainfall is normal in January, but the temperature is above normal and the weather does not get very cold. But in Bahman, between 20 and 30 Bahman, a mass of cold air will enter the country from Eurasia, which we predict will reduce the temperature below normal and most parts of the country will feel the cold. This cold is accompanied by snowfall.

He said: If the cold of 20 to 30 Bahman happens, it is a promise for the gardeners. When this cold continues, we will have a bit of Esfand, which prevents the trees from blooming, and usually in April every year until the 15th, a cold weather passes over Iran. We will have this cold between 20 and 30 and our trees will bloom later, and this is good for the agricultural sector of the country.

end of message/

Leave a Comment